Earlier this week, the NFDA released its 2026 Burial and Cremation Report to the wider public. The association earlier had released the information for its members. While there weren’t any earth-shattering surprises, the implications of some of the findings were more than merely interesting.
Annual U.S. deaths are currently estimated at 3.1 million and are projected to increase steadily to 3.9 million by 2045 as older adults enter higher-mortality age groups. While that breaks down to about 40,000 additional deaths annually, the NFDA’s projections are a little more bell-curvy, starting at 35k for the rest of this decade, then touching something closer to an additional 66k for the first part of the next decade before starting to taper off. Total U.S. funeral industry revenue is estimated at approximately $20.8 billion for 2025, with moderate annual growth of 2% to 3% anticipated through the end of the decade.
To understand where the industry is heading, we first have to look at the numbers and the people behind them. This upward mortality trajectory is primarily fueled by the aging baby-boomer generation. By 2030, every single baby boomer will be at least 65 years old, and by 2035, older adults are projected to outnumber children under the age of 18 for the first time in United States history. Because older adults represent the vast majority of funeral home revenue, this demographic wave ensures a long-term, stable foundation of demand for end-of-life services.
Yet, the way people choose to honor their loved ones is changing dramatically. Cremation has officially cemented its status as the primary choice for U.S. consumers, projected to hit 64.3 percent of final dispositions in 2026 and surge to 79.3 percent by 2045. When exploring why consumers are opting for cremation over traditional burials, convenience and simplicity top the list at 43.3 percent, followed closely by cost considerations at 34.4 percent and environmental factors at 23.2 percent. Interestingly, choosing cremation does not mean families are abandoning meaningful ceremonies. Industry data shows that nearly two-thirds of cremations still involve a formal service, whether that means a dedicated memorial gathering or a casketed viewing prior to the cremation itself.
Earlier this year we reported on the Cremation Association of North America’s Consumer Preferences Report compiled by Wake Forest University, which contained what they’ve termed the Cremation Paradox to describe similar findings. That report show that, while 72.6% of respondents would consider cremation, only 33.4% rank it as their absolute first choice. Casket burial actually captured 35.9% of first-choice rankings in the academic survey. This discrepancy suggests that many consumers may be utilizing cremation as a practical, accessible, or cost-conscious backup option rather than an ideal preference, driven by economic or logistical constraints.
The takeaway from that suggested that since alterantive dispositions, including natural burials, alkaline hydrolysis, and NOR, aren’t thoroughly in the zeitgeist, they’re less likely to be selected. The paradox was that, when presented with more options, people tended to be open to them.
Today’s consumers are digitally savvy, often entering the planning process armed with online research from multiple sources. Website visitation for funeral homes has jumped significantly, with families frequently browsing online for pricing, service packages, and obituaries before ever making a phone call or walking through the door. Price transparency has become a major expectation, with more than 80 percent of consumers noting they are more likely to engage with a funeral home that posts its General Price List online.
According to the report, even though the research journey tends to begin online, most families still visit a funeral home in person before finalizing arrangements.
Beyond digital tools, the actual look and feel of memorial services are expanding. Families are increasingly looking for personalized ways to celebrate a life. Data from the study indicates that more than 62 percent of consumers have attended a funeral or memorial service led by someone other than a faith leader, and nearly half would consider using a professional celebrant. Services continue to migrate away from viewing rooms, with roughly 30 percent of consumers attending services in banquet halls and nearly 20 percent gathering in outdoor settings.
For funeral directors and business owners, these shifts require proactive adaptation. With an estimated U.S. industry revenue of $20.8 billion and moderate annualized growth projected through the end of the decade, providers are rethinking traditional revenue streams that historically relied heavily on casketed burials and embalming merchandise. Many funeral homes are investing heavily in infrastructure, with roughly 40 percent operating or partnering with a crematory. That number is expected to approach 50 percent in the coming years. Staffing and talent acquisition also remain top-of-mind business challenges. While labor projections indicate modest employment growth for funeral service workers over the decade, most openings will be driven by workforce retirement and employee turnover rather than net industry expansion, keeping the hunt for skilled, compassionate professionals intensely competitive.
Finally, these trends are not happening in a vacuum. Canada is experiencing a nearly identical trajectory, with its projected 2026 cremation rate sitting at 79.6 percent and expected to reach 88.9 percent by 2045. On a global scale, countries with long-standing cultural traditions or dense urban centers, such as Japan, Hong Kong, and South Korea, boast cremation rates exceeding 90 percent, showcasing how space and culture shape deathcare worldwide.
